How to read odds as a probability

Decimal odds hide a probability: divide 1 by the odds. Odds of 2.00 mean 50%, odds of 1.60 mean 62.5%, odds of 1.50 mean 66.7%.

Break-even

That figure is also the share of bets you need to win to break even at those odds. At 1.50 you need two wins in three. If you think over 2.5 goals happens 62% of the time, a price of 1.50 is too low for you and a price of 1.70 pays more than the risk you see.

The bookmaker's margin

Add the probabilities of over and under at the same bookmaker and you get more than 100%. The extra is the margin. Our lists remove it before showing a probability, so the figure you read is the market's estimate without the bookmaker's cut.