How our over 2.5 goals predictions are made

1. Every morning we read the over/under 2.5 goals prices of the day's matches at low-margin reference bookmakers such as Pinnacle.
2. We remove the bookmaker's margin from those prices. What is left is the market's own probability that the match has three goals or more.
3. We keep the matches where over 2.5 goals is the more likely side and where the price at the bookmaker shown is at least 1.50, then publish the twenty highest probabilities.
4. After the final whistle, the score at 90 minutes is added next to each match.

The statistics tables are separate from the predictions: they count final scores from 30,349 finished matches in 238 leagues this season.

What the method cannot do

It does not know more than the betting market: it reads the market cleanly. A probability of 60% still fails four times in ten, and over many bets the bookmaker's margin works against the bettor. Use the lists to find matches, then decide with the price in front of you.

Why the odds shown may differ from yours

The odds are read at a fixed time in the morning at one bookmaker. Prices move during the day and differ between bookmakers and countries.